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Alliance For Change (AFC) Presidential Candidate Raphael Trotman has moved seven points up on his closest rivals, President Bharrat Jagdeo and Opposition Leader Robert Corbin, statistically tying the PNCR and sharply closing the gap with the PPP/C.
This is according to results from the latest polls conducted in July by Arcorp, a Mexican survey research firm that worked with Mexican President Felipe Calderon in his latest victory.
The survey shows that if elections were held today, President Bharrat Jagdeo would get 35 percent of the votes, Corbin 30 percent, Trotman 28 percent, while the other smaller party leaders would gain seven percent.
The survey commissioned by the AFC sought in-person interviews of 600 likely voters, with the results containing a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
AFC Campaign Strategist, Dick Morris, at a hurriedly called press conference last night, said the polls showed both the PPP/C and the PNCR losing an even amount of points when compared to an earlier survey conducted in March of this year.
“The AFC has increased its vote from 21 percent to 28 percent, while at the same time the PPP has dropped from 40 percent to 35 percent and the PNCR has dropped from 36 percent to 30 percent,” Morris told the media.
He said the survey really shows that the AFC has the capacity to draw not only from the African Guyanese base but the Indian Guyanese base and the mixed race families as well.
He said too that the AFC gained enormously from every single ethnic group but could not say how the Amerindian votes were split since the population was not large enough.
“I understand the elections are going to be called soon and the AFC goes into the elections with an excellent chance of winning,” Morris alluded.
Giving reasons for the good showing by the AFC, Morris said when there is a government as bad as the PPP/C that allows drug lords to live freely, it is not surprising that people should flock a “real” alternative.
Speaking of the results of the polls and the party's success, Trotman said the fact that AFC is cutting across the racial divide means that the reasons for the party's formation has so far been vindicated.
“Our appeal that racial politics is coming to an end in Guyana and also our appeal for stronger state and the establishment of the rule of law has resulted in the increase,” Trotman stated.
As was previously done at the release of its first polls, the AFC declined to divulge the methodology and the questions used to conduct the July poll.
“Every single area in the country was represented in this sample; it's a statistically balanced sample of the entire country. There was no community where there was not at least one interview,” Morris said, responding to questions posed by the media.
He stated seven parties were identified and the main question was simple: “If elections were held today, who would you vote for?”
Morris noted that the poll is the party's in-house document that will be used to win the elections and would not be released for the other parties to know the AFC's campaign strategy.
Vouching for the credibility of the two polls, the party posited that Guyana does not have a political culture of polls.
When asked if the party will release the questions contained in the survey, Trotman sought to draw a parallel with the polls conducted by Vishnu Bisram.
“Whenever next Mr. Bisram does a survey and releases his results, you are not likely to see Mr. Bisram release the results and the questions as well; that is the norm with the profession,” Trotman stated.
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